who would win a war between australia and china

I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. What war between Australia and China could look like if Taiwan conflict "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. In such a scenario, any Australian task force centred on its largely undefended troop transports and limited warship escorts would be under extreme risk. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. The US could no longer win a war against China - news But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. Who would win in a war between Australia and Indonesia? "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. What would war with China look like for Australia? But will it be safer for women? Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? 'Nuclear': Grim prediction for what war with China would look like - Yahoo! americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. "In the history of the 20th century, it took two world wars to deal with the difficult policy question of dealing with rising powers prepared to challenge the statusquo. US soldiers, some seen here at a military exercise in Morocco earlier in June, have been deployed to battles across the world for the past 50 years. If the US went to war with China, who would win? And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. So it would be an even match. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. "People in those days, in the spirit of compromise and understanding, were prepared to work together, if only for a short time. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. And the protagonists are testing each others resolve on an almost daily basis. Credit:AP. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. "But it is an entirely different story with China. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. Part 2. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. . Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. Are bills set to rise? War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. Taiwan is within that zone: 180 nautical miles. If Australia was dragged into a war with China, what would it look like? This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. US will 'lose fast' in war with China, Air Force's simulation shows Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. Credit:Getty. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. Please try again later. The contemplation of war can only be justified after all other means of settling differences have failed, and we are a long way from reaching this position (over Taiwan)," he says. Far fewer know their real story. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". And I believe he is ready to exploit this with a multipronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict what Chinas military calls enemy disintegration. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. Australia is especially exposed. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. And the West may not be able to do much about it. These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. Chinas military build-up is making a difference. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. And Australia could be fighting for its survival. A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. Show map. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. Who would win in a war between Australia and the United States - Quora The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. Stavros Atlamazoglou. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. The only truly reliable way to counter the threat would be to attack the submarines in port when they refuel and rearm, he writes. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. China is also developing the capabilities needed to support military operations at range, said Nouwens, suggesting they could attack across large distances. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. It has been since at least Monash's time. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. Are bills set to rise? "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. Would Japan? Why are Australian officials hinting at war with China? | CNN It has just about every contingency covered. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. He says Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology:to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own". "Furthermore, in the lead up to March 20, 2003,I was working at Oxford and bearing witness to significant questioning of the intention to invade Iraq through public dissent "not in our name Mr Blair". Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. Such possibilities seem remote at present. And what would such a fight look like? And a navy. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. The structure of the military is also different. The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare.

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